Solo Bitcoin Mining Calculator
Enter a home miner's hashrate, its power draw and your electricity rate. You get your approximate chance of solo mining a block over one day, one year, five years and ten years — plus what the power actually costs while you wait.
Loading Bitcoin network data…
Fetching the latest block target from mempool.space.
Difficulty used: 127.48 trillion
Figures are approximate — overwrite them with your own device's numbers.
Use the all-in rate from your bill, including delivery charges.
Your approximate odds of finding a block
In one day
0.00001894%
about 1 in 5.28 million
In one year
0.006916%
about 1 in 14,459
In five years
0.0346%
about 1 in 2,892
In ten years
0.0691%
about 1 in 1,446
At 1.2 TH/s total, the chance of finding no block at all in five years is 99.97%. On average one block would take 14,459 years — that is an average, not a schedule.
What it costs to run
Electricity, 30 days
$2.20
12.96 kWh
Electricity, 1 year
$26.82
157.8 kWh/year
How to use it
- Pick a miner from the list, or enter your own hashrate and wattage.
- Enter your all-in electricity rate per kWh and how many hours a day the miner runs.
- Read the odds cards alongside the electricity cost, then decide whether the chance is worth the spend.
About this tool
Solo mining means you keep the entire block reward if your miner happens to find a valid block — and nothing at all if it does not. This calculator uses the live Bitcoin block target from mempool.space to work out the chance that your hashrate finds a block in a given period, using 1 − (1 − p)N. It deliberately does not project earnings, because for a small home miner the far more likely outcome over any period is no block at all.
Difficulty is held flat for the whole period, which is optimistic — it has trended upwards over time, which would push real odds lower. Treat every number here as an approximation for a purchase decision, not a forecast.
Frequently asked questions about Solo Mining Calculator
Updated
- Is solo Bitcoin mining with a small home miner realistic?
- Realistic in the sense that the chance is genuinely non-zero, not realistic as income. A 1–6 TH/s device is a tiny share of a network measured in hundreds of exahash, so the calculator will usually show a very small multi-year probability. People buy these devices for the learning, the tinkering and the lottery-like chance, not for a payout schedule.
- How are the odds calculated?
- The tool reads the current block target from the latest block, converts it into the probability p that a single hash meets that target, multiplies your hashrate by the number of seconds in the period to get N attempts, then computes 1 − (1 − p)^N in log space so very small probabilities stay accurate.
- Why is the average time to a block different from the odds?
- The average time assumes many repeated attempts across infinite time. Block finding is memoryless, so an average of, say, 400 years does not mean you are 'due' after 200. That's why the tool shows a probability for each period and the chance of no block at all.
- Does the calculator include the Bitcoin price or block reward?
- No, and that is intentional. Reward value depends on the block subsidy, transaction fees and the future Bitcoin price, none of which are knowable. The tool gives you the two things you can pin down today: the probability and the cost.
- Would pooled mining be better?
- If you want small, measurable, regular credits rather than a lottery ticket, a pool usually fits better — though a very small miner can still take a long time to reach a pool's payout threshold. Check the payout rules before deciding.
- Is my data sent anywhere?
- No. Your hashrate, wattage and electricity rate stay in your browser and are never uploaded. The only network request is a public read of Bitcoin network data from mempool.space, which contains none of your inputs.
Want the full ownership picture?
The Solo Bitcoin Mining Reality Check adds hardware cost, a five-year ownership estimate, multi-miner comparisons and a goal-aware reading of your result, alongside the full guide as a PDF. $9.99 one-time.
See what's insideNothing here is financial advice. Network data is read from mempool.space .
Privacy
Your hashrate, wattage, electricity rate and results stay in your browser and are never uploaded, logged, or stored. The page makes one public request to mempool.space for Bitcoin network data, which includes none of your inputs.